Published in the Malay Mail on 25th December 2008 

I will celebrate New Year in Kuala Terengganu as my sister’s wedding is on Jan 1. 

The family breathed a sigh of relief when we heard that nomination day for Kuala Terengganu was scheduled for Jan 6 with polling on Jan 17. It would be difficult to manoeuvre the streets of Kuala Terengganu flapping with banners and posters, and the anticipated massive traffic jams caused by all the campaigning and ceramah.

Imagine the canvassing for the 80,229 votes to be cast at 38 polling centres in the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary constituency.

Given the razor-thin majority of 628 votes in the March 8 general election, Kuala Terengganu is definitely no Permatang Pauh, a bastion of the Parti Keadilan Rakyat which its favourite son was expected to win, anyway.

The capital of Terengganu is anyone’s game. The seemingly neverending saga between incoming Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak and opposition supremo Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is expected to continue with much gusto commencing Jan 6, the first Tuesday of 2009.

On this perceived neutral ground, Najib’s resolve and leadership abilities will be tested. He will need to crack the whip to ensure that party leaders currently jockeying for positions in the coming Umno party elections in March will not use this by-election as a platform for personal campaigning. He will need to rally the troops to focus on the bigger picture of retaining Kuala Terengganu – and hopefully soundly.

He can take comfort in the fact that his nemesis Anwar had taken a serious beating with the failed “takeover” promise of Sept 16, which is expected to have an adverse impact on the PKR coalition this by-election.

PKR also has to come to terms that although prices of goods generally remain a problem, the government’s proactive steps in handling the fuel issue has already watered down its main campaign message of calling for a reduction in petrol prices. The economic crisis that affected the greater part of the world has not been truly felt yet by Malaysians at large.

The cracks in the coalition too are widening and PKR will need to quell the trouble brewing with hudud-bent Pas, in addition to the cold war existing between the pro-Anwar camp and the traditionalist faction.

An important element in this byelection is the support of the Chinese voters who form 11 per cent of the electorate; they are a crucial group. (Malays represent 88.2 per cent of the electorate, Indians form 0.6 per cent while other races, make up the remaining 0.2 per cent.)

Barisan Nasional gained a sizeable segment of the Chinese votes the last time. Its candidate, the late Datuk Razali Ismail, garnered 32,562 votes over Pas vice-president Mohamad Sabu’s 31,934. Grandmother Maimun Yusof, 89, the oldest candidate in the general election, lost her deposit, polling 685 votes.

However, things may not be as clear cut this time as MCA is currently affected by infighting at the top echelon. The relationship with Umno post the Ahmad Ismail fiasco is surely to be fully exploited too.

But PKR too has a problem with this segment of the electorate. Its hope lies in the DAP machinery, but the fragile relationship reared its ugly head after the Husam Musa hudud admission in a debate with Umno Youth deputy head Khairy Jamaluddin. DAP’s role in quelling the fears of the non-Malay voters is a crucial one. Many believe that Pas lost control of Terengganu in 2004, after having alienated voters with its extreme measures, including its hudud stance.

This by-election will provide a real-time feedback of how recent developments have affected the confidence in and support for both coalitions. 

For Barisan Nasional, it will be an indication of how its various reform agendas are accepted by the voters. This is especially true of the 20,000 young voters in the constituency.

Many analysts believe that the Barisan Nasional’s development and progress message can still resonate with the younger generation. The election would illustrate whether the various amendments to the Universities and University Colleges Act 1971, the new Malaysian Anti- Corruption Commission, the steps towards judiciary revamp and such, will translate into votes.

Given this scenario, Terengganu Umno Youth, with the assistance of youth delegates from across Malaysia, will be on an all-out offensive to charm the voters and to convince them of Barisan Nasional’s progressive branding.

Terengganu Umno Youth head Mohd Sabri Alwi has already announced it will organise programmes to ensure that young voters can relate to their message.

More than a seat in the august house, this by-election will illustrate whether Umno and Barisan Nasional have digested the hard lessons of the 12th General Election, and whether PKR can sustain its march, all the way to the Sarawak polls.

As tradition dictates, the beginning of January will see many striving to observe New Year resolutions. 

It will be interesting to see which of the two coalitions is granted theirs.